Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Gameplanning For Crazy Inflation

Two weeks ago, I put gas in our Tundra for $3.94/gallon. A couple of days later my wife filled her 4Runner for $4.19/gallon. This past Sunday, I took our gas cans to fill them up--we keep 12 gallons on hand for our ATV and to have in a pinch--and paid $4.34. Gas in Prescott tends to be a little lower than the national average.



In the context of preventing/solving problems and connecting to my comments the other day about the crazy cost of insulin, would $10 gas be a problem for you? If so, how much of a problem? Would it be a problem so big that you'd need to make changes to some part of your routine? 

I don't think $10 gas is a serious threat as an average but what about $6 as a national average (that might take California close to $10)? My Tundra holds 26 gallons and if I typically fill it when it is only 1/4 full then that would work out to $195 to top it off at $10 per. My wife drives out to the United Animal Friends (the animal rescue she's the President of) ranch a couple of times/wk and that is on our nickel. She doesn't need to fill up that often but more than I do.

At $200 a pop and having a regular commute, that could easily be very problematic for a lot of people. I maybe fill once a month thanks to working from home and using a fire department for most, not all, trips into town. I also take the FD vehicle when I go work out at the fire house believing that if I am at the fire house for any reason, I should be immediately available to respond to a call as opposed to going home first and then responding. 


I am acutely aware how lucky we are on this front. If the price of gas became problematic, my wife could cut back to once/wk and we could both be strategic on grocery runs. So we've thought about it, assessed how much of a problem it is or is not and have a couple of thoughts on what we could do differently if we had to.

Not everyone is that lucky.

What about price inflation for food? I can't envision the scenario where we'd cut back on meat, eggs, fish, cheese or coffee. Those items, well maybe not the coffee, are crucial for good nutrition as we see it. We could cut other stuff...painfully...if it came to that. The fiat food that I wrote about the other day, as crazy as I might have thought that was 10 years ago, I'm not sure now but either way filling up on flour and corn products is insanely unhealthy and we'd sacrifice other things before food.

How vulnerable are you to increases in healthcare costs? The more visits to the doctor and the more prescriptions you take the more vulnerable you are obviously. We talk all the time about behavioral changes to try to reduce reliance on the healthcare system beyond what has happened to all of us over the last 15 years or so with the cost of health insurance. If my wife and I went with "good insurance" we'd be shelling out $1500/mo, we are lucky that we can get away with lousy "insurance" for a little over $500/mo. 

What other things do you spend money on that you have to? Can you cut back if you had to? What about discretionary spending like cable/satellite TV? Many people have moved on to streaming through their ISP. That doesn't quite work for us due to limited choices where we live but we could cut Directv if we had to but probably not internet service....unless I spent all day, every day at the firehouse. 

I have no idea what will happen. $10 gas as well as similar prices increases for other things seems like a crazy outcome to me but what if it happens? Or what if people get subsidies to help with those costs but you make a little too much to qualify for those subsidies. 

Do not wait until gas is at $10 to figure out how you'll handle gas at $10.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

"filling up on flour and corn products is insanely unhealthy"

I'd be interested to know your reaction to Ray Jardine's experience
(see https://www.rayjardine.com/Avocations/Profile/index.htm).

One of his books (on hiking the Pacific Crest Trail) recommends
corn pasta as sustainable fuel for long hikes. When hiking the
John Muir Trail, I recall seeing lots of folks following his advice.

Roger Nusbaum said...

Just saw this now, sorry. Corn is loaded with carbohydrates. I have no doubt that eating enough corn would have powered him through. It's still an unhealthy diet choice.

Example: a few years ago we were at Great Basin NP. One night at dinner my wife couldn't finish the pizza she ordered so I ate two slices of it. On the next day's hike, I flew up the mountain. Good for short term performance but as a long term habit, I used to eat that way and was prediabetic.

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