Tuesday, October 03, 2023

Americans Are Dying Younger, What You Should Do About It

The Wall Street Journal had a fun article about how much cash people should have around the house for emergencies. The prompt was of course making fun of Senator Bob Menendez who is in trouble for corruption related to $480,000 in cash in suits in his closet along with some gold bars. 

The article didn't draw any sort of conclusion, it just quoted opinions from several sources. It acknowledged than people who live in areas prone to natural disasters, including wildfires, might want to have a little more than people who are not geographically susceptible to natural disasters. 

At the low end of opinions was $200. The high end was framed by John Ramey of The Prepared Site. That sounds like some sort of prepper type of group or company but I am not sure. He said that people should be prepared for two weeks in a hotel, plus food after a disaster without functional ATM machines. If you were forced to a hotel, I'm not sure why a credit card wouldn't work even manually if it came down to it. William Bernstein chimed in that it would be better to be able to pay contractors in cash after some sort of natural disaster because he thinks people who can pay with cash, actual bank notes, would get priority over people paying with a check.

I live in the type of community where having cash comes in handy. A few weeks ago, we bought a portable generator for our rental cabin and the guy wanted cash. Obviously I could have gone to the ATM but the point is, the purchase required me having cash. One way I thought of to answer the question is what is the most cash you ever needed for something? Whatever that figure is, have double that on hand. That's not based on anything other than gut.  

Forbes had an interesting article on something that I know will be an issue for me if/when I retire. There is a common psychology on being very uncomfortable spending down or otherwise withdrawing money in retirement.  

Brian Portnoy is says that part of this psychology is attributed to giving up a lifetime of good savings habits. These habits become part of our identities and giving them up creates complicated emotions. I'm not sure what I think about that one. Do you agree?

Then, suggestions are given about how transition into retirement. They including phasing in with some sort of side or part time gig, never retire which is how I have leaned over the years. Reading the third suggestion, it's not clear what they are saying. There is point in that third suggestion of being open to the possibility of dying (hopefully at a very old age) having left a lot of money unspent. 

To the extent that money leftover is a result of depriving yourself of what you want to do, that really is something to sort out. A 4% withdrawal rate sustains ninety something percent of the time and frequently the actual end result is dying with more money than you had when you first retired. I don't have a definitive answer here, this is an issue I will have to deal with and overcome. Yes, you might need expensive care toward the end but if you retire at 65 with a million bucks, dying 30 or 40 years later with $2 million in the bank is not a bad outcome but might not be the best outcome.

Finally the Washington Post had a long, brutal read about falling life expectancy in the US. It ties in a lot of the metabolic issues I post about on Twitter but doesn't mention the terms insulin resistance, insulin sensitivity or metabolic syndrome. It also dives pretty deep into socioeconomic factors. 

The takeaway from me is always that it is up to us prevent/solve our own problems. Paraphrasing Joe Moglia, no one will care more about our outcomes than us. Healthcare today focuses on managing chronic maladies for the rest of your life with medication as opposed to curing those maladies by changing behaviors. The amount of processed, carby food we eat is literally killing us. It can be very simple, reduce carbohydrate consumption and lift weights. That will give the biggest bang for the buck. Follow this list on Twitter to learn the science of what I am saying but the benefits of cutting carbs and lifting weights are essentially endless. 

The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and opinions as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation.

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