Sunday, December 31, 2023

Barron's On How To Live Longer & Healthier

Barron's posted a couple of retirement related pieces; one article and one kind of slide show that looks like something posted on Instagram. 

Second one first, the slide show which was titled How To Retire Early... Without Regrets. There was nothing unique or truly insightful but I would offer one addition that pertains to any retirement age, early or otherwise. Maintain as much optionality in as many of your constituencies as you possibly can. Do with that what you will. 

The longer article looked at seven habits to live a "longer, healthier life" written by Neal Templin. Templin is semi-retired and writes occasionally for Barron's. His articles are usually pretty good. I wanted to try to add a little color to his points.

Number one on the list was exercise regularly, Templin got specific with mentions of deadlifting and squats. We start to naturally lose muscle mass around 30. Unchecked, this leads to becoming frail which makes old age harder. Many years of frailty does not have to be an inevitability but it does take work to avoid. Fortunately the work is simple, even if not easy. Lift weights. Lifting builds muscle mass and bone density regardless of age and done effectively can help stay ahead of muscle deflation. 

Done with the right intensity, lifting weights can also be a cardio workout. Doing reps slowly with enough weight that forces momentary muscle failure around 8-12 reps and with little time in between sets is how to get a better cardio benefit out of it. I also skip rope a couple of times per week, usually hike once a week and because it is getting close to pack testing (annual fire fighting physical requirement involving a weighted hike) I've been rucking with a 45 pound vest. A couple of times per year there will be a couple of instance of moving a lot of firewood which is a fantastic workout and there's a lot of snow shoveling in the winter.

In this context, Templin correctly mentions the importance of grip strength as a marker for biological age and mortality. Being able to bend down to pick up heavy things, walk fast and run are also important. Not mentioned specifically was body composition. Gaining weight is not an inevitability. We gain weight because our bodies naturally lose the ability to stave off the consequences of a poor diet. When I was 20 or 30, I could eat anything, it didn't matter. At some point I started to lose that ability. This happens to almost all of us at some age. For one person maybe at 30 and for someone else, maybe 60 but either way it happens. Lifting weights and eating right should build or maintain muscularity and can keep you from developing a big stomach. This work results in looking younger on the outside, thanks to a similar body composition as when you were young, and so chances are then you're also younger on the inside.

"Drink moderately, if at all, and don't smoke." Not much to add there,

I diverge quite a bit from the article on how to eat well. It was in the diet part that Neal talked about Blue Zones which are the five small areas around the world where people live much longer than the general population. Yes, we saw the Dan Buettner documentary on Netflix which I would describe as trying to take bits of possible explanation from each of the five to find an answer. However, I've read enough to conclude for myself that the attributes ascribed to the Blue Zones might not actually be the reason. I don't have chops to dissect it, draw your own conclusion. 

Where the various diets are talked about in the documentary with emphasis on the Mediterranean Diet, I think it's more that the Med Diet is clearly better than the Standard American Diet but is not optimal. Again draw your own conclusion. I disagree with Templin on deemphasizing meat in favor of plant based for reasons having to do with getting enough bioavailable protein, avoid overly heavy Omega 6, avoiding seed oils (more of a processed food thing), getting enough amino acids and getting adequate micronutrients. It is very difficult to get what you need without enough meat is the conclusion I have drawn for myself. Pretty much all diet philosophies, other than guidelines from conflicted agencies, agree on cutting back as much as possible on sugar and processed food. 

What I said above about body composition when we were 20 or 30, there are now many more people that age who do not have healthy body compositions because of how bad our diet has collectively become.

Where getting adequate sleep is concerned, I see numbers all over the place. The Barron's article cited getting at least five hours and 45 minutes but that seems very low to me. The article also poo-poos naps but I've seen plenty of commentary that naps are good. 

Maintaining strong relationships also seems to be a universal suggestion but that can be difficult for people who are introverted. I am somewhere on the introverted scale. Empty conversations about nothing are not fun for me, and there are certain personality types that exhaust me. This is where actively volunteering can be a huge help. It involves a lot of time with people but the conversations need to be purposeful in order to do the business of whatever the volunteer organization does. One thing I would add to the Barron's article on this item is to know the difference between being alone and being lonely. There is a difference. Feeling lonely is not good but enjoying time spent alone, like maybe working on some project or physical exertion or some sort of meditative state (I could lump writing into this point or listening to music) can be very additive.

Keeping the brain engaged and adequately challenged is another universal suggestion. For me, the challenges of capital markets scratches that itch. I'm fascinated with market cycles, investment products, cross asset dynamics, portfolio construction and the list goes on. My thing, shouldn't necessarily be your thing but finding something you dig as much I dig markets as I described is worth looking for and going all in on. 

The last item in the article was how we manage stress. When you live below your means and build up some sort of financial margin of safety, you are likely reducing or even eliminating financial stress which of course is a big one. If you're not worried about finances and you're not arguing with your spouse over finances then life becomes much easier. Regular, vigorous exercise of course also reduces stress. Maybe I'm reaching but finding purpose through some sort of active volunteer work might also reduce stress. There are plenty of other ideas about reducing stress to learn about like time in nature which is a big one for me as well as ditching the daily commute.

At 60 or 70 or 80 or any age, you can either be young or old. The other day we got called out for medical alarm (fire department thing), it was a false alarm and as we were getting back to the station house, we saw our 82 year old station boss (keeps track of resources out on a big incident as well as fixes things around the station house) up on the roof sweeping the pine needles off. He carries no extra weight, he's very much a tinkerer and fix it guy and while I do not know if he thinks of being our station boss as giving him purpose, he enjoys it very much. I think I told this story about him a few years ago, we were talking outside the station house, he slipped on the ice and biffed it pretty good but popped up right away like it was nothing other than being embarrassed. He was probably 77 or 78 at the time, long past the age where that sort of fall for the wrong person can be very problematic. 

In my 21 years here in Walker, I've seen all sort of examples of successful aging which probably contributed to my interest and my attempts to also age successfully or put differently to have a long healthspan, to be able to do what I want and enjoy to a very old age. I've said before that I hope to be able to qualify to fight wildfires until I am "holy shit, how old is that dude?"

The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and opinions as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation.

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Big 2024 Prediction Post!

Are you ready? Something will skyrocket more than anyone expected, something else will do shockingly poorly and a bunch of other stuff will be in between those two. 

Predictions are pretty useless. I think you can list out current headwinds for markets as well as items that argue favorably for markets, then remember that the stock market has an up year 72% of the time (82% of presidential election years going back to 1926 via Bespoke Investment Group) and accept that in your portfolio, if you go any narrower than a broad index fund, some things will do pretty well and some things will do poorly, Guessing which is which is pretty hard to do. 

If all you use is a broad index fund then it will either be a good year or not so good, but assuming the proper asset allocation, who cares? The important thing is there are far more good years than bad years, you just need to be there for the good years which probably also means being there for the occasional bad years.

Speaking of good years and bad years, the last two are a good microcosm due to the divergent performance of various ways to own the US stock market.


The comparison is simple market cap weighting vs a dividend strategy versus value. All three are valid but as we say here all the time, nothing can always be the best. You can either diversify strategies/exposures or live with the reality that when you choose one, there will be years that you lag noticeably and very occasionally you will lag by a mile. Both are valid. The last two years are a great example of that last point. The divergence of MCW from 2022 to 2023 is shocking.


Even if you were ride or die with value, the clear laggard, over the last 12 years you still got a compound annual growth of 10.78%. That's enough to get it done assuming an adequate savings rate, appropriate asset allocation and no panicking. 

Truly accepting that whatever way you choose to invest cannot always be the best and that occasionally the stock market will go down a lot is liberating. That mindset eliminates the fear. A valid strategy will be the best some years but not all years, probably not most years but as we saw above, a serious laggard still had a very strong CAGR over a decent period of time. When the stock market goes down a lot, like 2022, it eventually stops going down. Then it starts to work its way higher, eventually making a new high. The only variable is how long that all takes. I've been saying to clients and in my blogging since the Financial Crisis and will keep saying it and when you actually understand that's how it works, it makes market participation much easier. 

Whatever you do, just make sure you have an adequate savings rate if that still applies, you maintain the appropriate asset allocation and that you don't panic (repeated for emphasis).

The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and opinions as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation.

No Portfolio Can Win Every Time

First a quick note on Israel's missile strike on Iran. The initial reaction of markets over night was a swift, but not huge, decline in ...