Just a couple of very quick snippets tonight.
Netflix (NFLX) has taken quite a hit over the last seven months or so with the attempt to buy Warner Brothers probably a contributing factor.
NFLY is the crazy high yielding version of Netflix, it is down a little more on a price basis but when you add the yield back in, it has actually outperformed by 800 basis points (per Testfol.io). NFXL is a 2X version of Netflix and the way the sequence of daily returns played out, it helped NFXL to be down less than 36% times two. The 2X funds and the derivative income funds are not automatically bad holds but they certainly would be tricky holds. Both have sort of worked out during this period but flip of the coin, they could have gone the other way.
Man Financial came out with an ETF in December that goes 100% S&P 500/100% managed futures in a manner similar to the ReturnStacked fund with symbol RSST.
MATE is the new Man Financial ETF, Portfolio 2 is building MATE yourself with client/personal holding AHLT as the managed futures piece and Portfolio 4 is an AQR fund that does something similar but is not 100/100 and that one is a personal holding.
RSST pretty much never comes out ahead in any sort of study we do. If we take MATE out and go back to RSST's inception, RSST outperformed IVV/AHLT for the first half of the back test but overall lagged by 488 basis points compounded.
The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and opinions as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation.
2 comments:
mate is better represented as 80% ahlt + 100% ivv (the vol on mate's managed future portion is ~20% less than AHLT). Shows up even already on a OLS regression.
either way the chart here showing like ~45 days is kind of silly. There's so much dispersion in this space that it means nothing. as an example go look at CTA or BLNDX (it was flat/even with cash in 2025 ever with being up in the ~50ish percent equity exposure it has). And CTA was flat too even though it's previous years were great.
Here's a rsst vs mate simulation (ahlt at 80% vol):
https://testfol.io/?s=1Hxn8pnIhzM
If you check the correlation, it's basically the same thing almost, and the telltale chart tells you you're higher up on RSST for the first half and higher growth in MATE for second half. Be much better to pick RSST or MATE, then grab a DBMF, CTA (or CTAP if you want capital effiency), and add an AQMIX or as you reference the QNZIX (with is AQMIX + IVV). Those are relatively all uncorrelated (except the RSST or MATE). Also BLNDX is a pretty great fund too even though 2025 is was probably pulled down by mid speed trend.
Thanks Corey.
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