I'm writing this post mid-day Sunday before the futures open. Bitcoin is the only thing that gives any indication of the reaction to the tariff news or just threats, who knows but at a minimum, the tariff news is dominating the conversation this weekend.
It seems like markets will react swiftly and negatively, great if that turns out to be wrong. I certainly don't know what will happen in terms of a reaction. Maybe it will be very serious or not so serious I don't know. Whatever is coming, what we do know is that at some point the reaction to whatever the reality will be is going to end and then after that the market will start to work its way higher. The only variable is how long that takes to play out.
If you've been a market participant for a while, you've been through plenty of market events that were each "different" except they are not different for the reason I just said. The market might go down but at some point the decline ends and then it starts working back to a new high. The only variable is how long that all takes.
For a little context, if the S&P 500 were to fall as much as 5% on Monday, down to 5700, that would be a level first reached last September. When the S&P 500 first reached that level, it was up 20% for the year at that point and everyone felt great about stocks.
The point here is not to sugar coat anything but more like if this is bad (maybe it won't, I don't know, repeated for emphasis) to realize there have been plenty of bad or scary events in markets before and at some point they end and after that a new high comes.
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