David Epstein wrote about an interesting idea (new to me) called the arrival fallacy. The prompt was the recent press conference where Scottie Scheffler talked about the short lived joy, for him, that goes with winning a golf tournament. Winning is joyful for Scheffler but then "it's like, okay, now what are we going to eat for dinner?"
This is relatable. I've talked before about my first job out of college at Lehman Brothers starting in the summer of 1989. I got into a program where you had six months to open 50 accounts that would go to one a broker that was your mentor. Open the 50 and then you become a broker.
I can't begin to tell you how bad I was at cold calling and pitching people but I was able to get to 50 in four months which might have been a record, not sure about that but it was fast. Amusingly, someone came along shortly thereafter and did in a month. This guy could open accounts so easily that I swear he could get anyone to send him their last $10,000 to buy Texaco or Paramount (two of the stocks getting pitched in the office back then). It got to the point where they coached him to not open so many accounts because that's what he was doing, getting people to send their last, or only, $10,000 in to buy stock which didn't jibe with the business model. I moved on shortly thereafter but I am sure he went on to be wildly successful.
When I completed this program, I got the offer for my own desk (jargon) on a Friday. I was ecstatic all weekend, legitimately ecstatic, I had arrived. I worked very hard and achieved a goal that I was told most people fail at. Then Monday morning came, I had to start over completely and I knew almost immediately that this was not what I wanted to do. I had arrived but really I hadn't done anything.
This encounter with arrival fallacy was pivotal in my development as an adult. I've talked before about not really being a goal oriented person and that Monday morning feeling was a contributor.
My approach has been more like putting in the work and following the progression toward wherever the work leads. With my day job, I started studying voraciously in the 80's, then all through the 90's when I was at Schwab not knowing where I would end up. The progression was going from a trader to portfolio manager. A huge kickstart came from writing, first getting published in Barron's in early 2004 and then starting to blog a few months later. Things worked out but there's never been any goals, I just stuck with it and went where it took me.
Similarly I've never been believer in retirement numbers (goals) like "oh, I need $1.2 million to retire" because whatever you end up with is your retirement number, not some calculation out of Smart Money Magazine (remember that one?) you did in 1998.
Sort of related, the NY Times had a commentary about writing letters, actually writing them, to your future self and the sort of introspection that goes with this subject or when you see what advice would you give to the 20 year old you?
The actual commentary was not interesting but I think there is value in doing favors for the future you, doing whatever you can to make things easier for yourself when you're older, giving yourself as many options as you can. There can be a progression to this without having to overly focus on goals that could result in arrival fallacy.
While starting to save money in your 20's would be great, I don't know how many twenty-somethings make enough to do so. Hopefully though as you get into your 30's you can start to build something up in a 401k or the like. This is where financial optionality starts. At 30, it may not be possible to understand what it is to be 50 years old but 50 is coming and having sort sort of financial optionality akin to some level of financial independence is an unknown favor that 30 year old you is doing for the older you. It is an unknown favor because at 30 you probably have no idea or very little idea about what you will want at 50.
Of course staying in good physical condition is part of this conversation. If 50 is going to come, would you rather be lean, strong and able bodied or the alternative? We all know people our age who look like action figures and people who are very sick, unable to do very much. While it is never too late to start, a lifetime of exercise is a huge physical favor and a huge financial favor. I don't think this needs to be goal oriented. I've been lifting weights very consistently my entire life. The metabolic benefits are endless and I want to be able to bend down and pick up heavy things for the rest of my life. If being able to deadlift X pounds or benchpress Y pounds motivates you, great, but being healthy doesn't have to involve goals. Great, you can deadlift some big number but as Scheffler might say, ok, now what are we going to eat for dinner?
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