Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Bitcoin Face Ripper?

Most people probably have some sort of reaction to the actual election and saw the initial reaction in capital markets. For the several months there has been the perception that Trump would be better for Bitcoin than Harris. He talked about less regulation, replacing Gary Gensler who has been an obstacle in the evolution of more accessibility to crypto products as well as talk of creating a Bitcoin reserve. 

I'm not too interested in trying to guess how policy might change around Bitcoin or which candidate would have been better for Bitcoin because we only have the one outcome, good, bad or indifferent, this is what we have. 

Bitcoin reacted immediately, going quite a bit higher to an all time high. A couple of weeks ago I wrote a skeptical post about Bitcoin questioning how it can evolve into being the global reserve that the touts say it will be. We'll see but if that post wasn't clear, it can still function as a speculative asset, it could go to the moon whatever that might mean. In that previous post I said that even if it went up 1000x I don't see how that could be a enough to be the global reserve but that certainly would be a massive windfall for anyone holding at least a few hundred dollars worth. It still could go down a lot, I'm not backing off that possibility.

Fast forward to the post election lift and the absolute glee on Twitter. Bitcoin Twitter, yes I am calling it Twitter, is out in full force. I've only had one client ever ask about it a while back, pretty sure that is right, maybe there was a second, and I said the same thing as I always say. If you want to speculate, start small and let it go to the moon or fail. If it grows into a life changing piece of money, sell it and let it change your life. I've been on that page for many years now.

The touts really hit hard trying to create urgency, trying to get people to buy and that always makes me cringe. I feel like they are looking for suckers to come into the tent. Hopefully you can recognize when someone or a group is playing or preying on your sense of greed or fomo or however else you might think of it. 

There is nothing wrong with a small speculation but when you read someone say something like just keep stacking Stats (a phrase that means keep buying more) or someone else said "that feeling when you wish you had more Bitcoin" which the head of one of the ETF companies actually Tweeted, that makes it seem scammy. Maybe they're looking for the greater fool. That is probably too far but if you are going to speculate or have already done so and you don't consider yourself a true believer (I am not) that don't let excited Tweets or the like whip you up into buying more than you should.

The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and opinions as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation.

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